It must be said that from this point forward the possibilities of statistical development 1bet2uthai are practically infinite, so we will try to make things as simple as possible in order to get started, but it remains that it will then be necessary to pick up everything and go deeper.
The calculation of probabilities
Everything in poker is determined by the probabilities, but if understanding the range of hands of the opponents is also the task of our ability to extrapolate information to the table, as regards the statistical calculation of our possibilities, we can rely purely on mathematics.
Here is useful then the calculation we made in the last bet of our ” outs “, or the number of cards that can improve our hand in the following streets of the board (turn and river). From that number, we must now derive our ” Odds ” or ” Probabilities ” in this regard, which are nothing more than two ways of defining the possibilities that a certain event will happen or less : the probability will then be expressed as a percentage (which the event occurs), while the Odds are expressed in a ratio between the number of times it occurs and those in which it is not.
In terms of “ Odds ” we can say that about one in three times we will close our bilateral draw on the flop. And we’ll find out later how important this information can be. But first let’s give an even simpler and more essential rule that can help us at the beginning, when it will not always be easy to do these calculations in mind.
Let’s make things easier: the x4 and x2 rule
Especially at the beginning, the thing we most want to know is how many there are broadly the chances of closing our projects (and as many as our opponents have), so if we are not yet familiar with the calculations presented above, we can resort to a very easy trick to memorize.
In the table on the side there are all the percentages of probability of closing a shot depending on the number of our Outs. The calculation we made is the same as the previous one, but there is also another way to roughly obtain the same result.
In fact, when we are at the Flop, we just need to multiply our Outs by “4” and get roughly the same amount. If, on the other hand, we are already on the Turn, then we will have to multiply the Outs only by “2”.
It is precisely the rule of ” x4 ” and ” x2 ” that allows us to always have in mind our percentages, at least up to 12, 13 Outs . The higher the number, the more the difference increases and we risk not making the right decisions.
Knowing how likely it is to close one of our projects can often prove to be crucial in making some decisive choices during a game.